2022 Forecast

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Yesterday we held the annual Real Estate Market Forecast with our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner.

To get the recording of the full presentation, please reach out to your Windermere real estate broker.

Here are some of the big takeaways from Matthew:

  • The national economy is very strong and the rate of inflation is expected to slow during 2022
  • There are many millions more open jobs available versus the number of unemployed people looking for work
  • Mortgage interest rates are expected to reach 3.85% by the end of the year
  • Home price appreciation along the Front Range will again be in the double-digits this year due to high demand, low supply and low interest rates
  • Home price appreciation is not expected to sustain the current pace over the next few years, but no price declines are expected

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Steady Stream

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Despite the extraordinarily low amount of standing inventory, it is important to understand there is still a steady stream of new inventory hitting the market.

Inventory is low. That is a reality.

New inventory is coming on the market at essentially the same pace as compared to the last few years. That is also a reality.

Because demand is so high, the inventory doesn’t stay on the market very long.  Residential listings go from ‘Active’ to ‘Pending’ very quickly (assuming they are priced correctly).

Over the course of 2021, there were 66,308 new residential listings that hit the market in Metro Denver.  That is only 5% less than 2020.

Larimer County had 8,342 which is 7% less than 2020.

Weld County had 8,499 which is 5% less than 2020.

While standing inventory is near 50% lower than last year, the stream of new inventory is fairly consistent.

It is time to register for our annual Market Forecast with Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. This year the event will be hosted online on Thursday February 3rd from 11:00 to 12:00.

You can register at www.ColoradoForecast.com

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Should I Remodel or Sell My Home As Is?

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Homeowners who are preparing to sell are often faced with a dilemma about whether to remodel or sell their home in its current state. Each approach has its respective advantages and disadvantages. If you decide to remodel your home, it will likely sell for more; but the increased selling price will come at the cost of financing the remodeling projects. If you decide to sell without remodeling, you won’t spend as much money putting your home on the market, but the concern is whether you’re leaving money on the table.

Should I Remodel or Sell My Home As Is?

To answer this question, it’s important to understand the factors that could influence your decision and to work closely with your agent throughout the process.

Cost Analysis: Home Remodel vs. Selling Your Home As Is

Home Remodel

When you remodel your home before selling, you’re basically making a commitment to spend money to make money. So, it’s important to consider the kind of ROI you can expect from different remodeling projects and how much money you’re willing to spend. Start by discussing these questions with your agent. They can provide you with information on what kinds of remodels other sellers in your area are making and the returns they’re seeing as a result of those upgrades. This will help you determine the price of your home once your remodel is complete.

Then, there’s the question of whether you can complete you remodeling projects DIY or if you’ll need to hire a contractor. If hiring a contractor seems expensive, know that those costs come with the assurance that they will perform quality work and that they have the skill required to complete highly technical projects. 

According to the Remodeling 2021 Cost vs. Value Report (www.costvsvalue.com1), on average, homeowners paid roughly $24,000 for a midrange bathroom remodel and about $26,000 for a minor kitchen remodel nationwide, with a 60.1% and 72.2% ROI respectively. This data shows that, for these projects, you can recoup a chunk of your costs, but they may not be the most cost-effective for you. A more budget-friendly approach to upgrading these spaces may look like repainting your kitchen cabinets, swapping out your old kitchen backsplash for a new one, refinishing your bathroom tub, or installing a new showerhead. Other high-ROI remodeling projects may allow you to get more bang for your buck, such as a garage door replacement or installing stone veneer. To appeal to sustainable-minded buyers, consider these 5 Green Upgrades that Increase Your Home Value. 

 

A man and woman look at blueprint plans with a contractor inside a room that’s being remodeled.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Source: stevecoleimages

 

Selling Your Home As Is

Deciding not to remodel your home will come with its own pros and cons. By selling as is, you may sell your home for less, but you also won’t incur the cost and headache of dealing with a remodel. And since you’ve decided to sell, you won’t be able to enjoy the fruits of the remodel, anyway. If you sell your home without remodeling, you may forego the ability to pay down the costs of buying a new home with the extra money you would have made from making those upgrades.

Market Conditions: Home Remodel vs. Selling Your Home As Is

Local market conditions may influence your decision of whether to remodel before selling your home. If you live in a seller’s market, there will be high competition amongst buyers due to a lack of inventory. You may want to capitalize on the status of the market by selling before investing time in a remodel since prices are being driven up, anyway. If you take this approach, you’ll want to strategize with your agent, since your home may lack certain features that buyers can find in comparable listings. In a seller’s market, it is still important to make necessary repairs and to stage your home.

In a buyer’s market, there are more homes on the market than active buyers. If you live in a buyer’s market, you may be more inclined to remodel your home before selling to help it stand out amongst the competition.

Timing: Home Remodel vs. Selling Your Home As Is

Don’t forget that there is a third option: to wait. For all the number crunching and market analysis, it simply may not be the right time to sell your home. Knowing that you’ll sell your home at some point in the future—but not right now—will allow you to plan your remodeling projects with more time on your hands which could make it more financially feasible to complete them.

For more information on how you can prepare to sell your home, connect with a local Windermere Real Estate agent below:

 

 

  1. “© 2021 Hanley Wood, Complete data from the Remodeling 2021 Cost vs. Value Report can be downloaded free at www.costvsvalue.com.”

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Standing Low

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The standing inventory of residential properties currently for sale is staggeringly low.

The number of active properties for sale is almost 90% below the average for this time of year.

In Metro Denver, there are 1,144 residential properties for sale today.

In Larimer County, there are 136 and in Weld County there are 174. 

Current inventory along the Front Range is essentially half of what it was one year ago.

The low standing inventory bolsters our belief that nothing resembling a decline in housing prices is on the horizon.  The low supply will continue to put upward pressure on prices.

It is time to register for our annual Market Forecast with Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.  This year the event will be hosted online on Thursday February 3rd from 11:00 to 12:00.

You can register at www.ColoradoForecast.com

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Housing Inventory

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Many of our clients wonder if the current pace of price growth can continue.  Some even ask if prices will decline this year. 

Based on researching the Case-Shiller Home Price index and the National Association of Realtors home inventory data, there must be at least 6 months of inventory in a market for prices to have any chance of declining. We wrapped up 2021 with about 2 weeks of inventory across Larimer County, Weld County and Metro Denver. This marks a 43%-46% decrease in inventory as compared to December 2020.

The dwindling supply and the rising prices have led to a lot of questions about the future of the housing market. Is there a market crash on the horizon? Is there a housing bubble that’s about the burst? The answer is no. Although it is unlikely that the market can continue at this pace indefinitely, all signs point to a healthy housing market in 2022.

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Lumber Back Up

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The price of lumber has jumped back up again and is adding to the cost of new home construction.

Over the past four months, lumber prices have nearly tripled, causing the price of an average new single-family home to increase by more than $18,600.

According to Random Lengths, as of the end of December, the price of framing lumber topped $1,000 per thousand board feet — a 167% increase since late August.

This most recent lumber price upsurge is due to a number of factors, including:

  • Ongoing supply chain disruptions
  • A doubling of tariffs on Canadian lumber imports into the U.S. market that increased price volatility
  • An unusually strong summer wildfire season in the western United States and British Columbia

Predictions on what lumber prices will do during 2022 are mostly pointing to even higher costs for home builders and ultimately, new home buyers.

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The Fire’s Impact

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Our heart goes out to all of the people impacted by the Marshall Fire in Boulder County.

If you would like to give your support, we have set up a special fund through the Windermere Foundation where we will match any donation you make up to $5000.

You can make that donation HERE.

This devastating event will have significant impacts on the real estate market both short term and medium term.

There are some interesting things to consider related to the fire:

  1. This will be the costliest wildfire in Colorado history, by far.  The total losses will probably approach $800 million.  The most expensive wildfire up until now was last year’s East Troublesome fire at just over $500 million.
  2. It’s likely that the vast majority of the residential property owners who lost their homes were underinsured.   Given the recent rise in both property values and construction costs, these homeowners may find that their insurance won’t cover their actual loss.  We encourage everyone to check in on their own property insurance versus actual replacement costs.
  3. Nearly 1000 households are now in need of housing.  Today there are only 161 residential properties for sale in Boulder County.  In addition, the rental market also has low supply.  We expect that many of the people impacted will consider housing alternatives outside of Boulder County simply out of necessity.
  4. The homebuilding industry is currently challenged with both labor and material shortages.  It may take long time to replace the properties that were destroyed by the fire.

Again, we are so sad for the people who were impacted.  We are also encouraged to see all the different ways that our community has stepped up to help.

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How to Prepare for a Fire at Home

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A fire breaking out in your home is a serious potential hazard. Fortunately, there are simple steps you can take to identify the early signs of a fire and to prepare for an emergency. The following list will help you and your household put together your fire safety plan.

How to Prepare for a Fire at Home

Fire safety

Having properly functioning smoke and CO2 detectors is crucial to your safety. Test your smoke and CO2 detectors frequently and swap out the batteries when necessary. It is recommended to have a smoke detector outside each sleeping area and on each level of your home.

Always keep a fire extinguisher near the kitchen to combat flame outbursts from the stove or oven. It is best to have at least one fire extinguisher per floor for easy access. Keep in mind that fire extinguishers are used to control and extinguish small, contained fires. If a fire has spread throughout an entire room, or is beginning to engulf your home, know that fire extinguishers are no match for the blaze, and you should escape immediately.

Evacuation plan

A home fire can be very disorienting. During an emergency, it is critical that all members of your household know how to properly evacuate the home. Identify two ways to escape from each room in case one route is unsafe. Choose a meeting spot somewhere outside for everyone to meet a safe distance away from the fire. This can be across the street, down the block, at a neighbor’s house, or wherever makes most sense for you and your family. The most important thing is that you all have an agreed-upon rendezvous. Select an emergency contact whom you can reach out to if something goes wrong in the evacuation process or if a family member is missing.

Best practices

When escaping your home, crawl as low as possible to stay beneath the smoke. Test closed doors before using them to escape. If they are hot, that’s a sign that there are flames on the other side of the door and you should use an alternative escape strategy. Be careful that you don’t burn your hand when testing closed doors. Make sure everyone in your household knows the procedure for calling 9-1-1 and properly alerting the fire department. If you have pets at home, include them in your evacuation plans. If you are forced to decide between evacuating safely and trying to rescue a pet, know that firefighters are trained experts at saving animals from house fires. 

For more tips on how to plan for fire-related emergencies at home, read our blog for Wildfire Preparation and Evacuation Tips.

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Working with a Listing Agent

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What is a Listing Agent?

Generally, a real estate transaction involves a listing agent representing the seller and a buyer’s agent representing the buyer. Listing agents will conduct a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA)—which uses recent housing market data to compare the seller’s home to other listings in their area—to accurately price the property. The agent will list the home, coordinate showings and open houses, and negotiate with buyers’ agents to find the best offer for their client. Once the transaction is complete, the listing agent and buyer’s agent will split the commission of the sale.

Hiring a listing agent removes the risks of selling your own home by placing the selling process in the hands of an experienced licensed professional. Once you’ve found the right agent, you can begin working together to form your selling strategy.

Advantages of Working with a Listing Agent

Accurately Pricing Your Home

Your listing agent will begin the selling process by finding the value of your home. There are various factors that influence home prices, including seasonality, market conditions, home features, and more. Agents have exclusive access to the data behind these trends, allowing them to conduct a thorough CMA to accurately price your home. Of all the costly mistakes in the selling process, an inaccurately priced home is perhaps the most consequential. An overpriced home will attract the wrong buyers, increase your home’s days on market, and could lead to serious post-sale complications, that, in some cases, could jeopardize the sale. An underpriced home leaves money on the table. With a listing agent’s CMA, you can rest assured that the price of your home is backed by current market data, which will set you and your agent up for successful negotiations.

Marketing Your Home

Listing agents are experienced professionals who possess a wealth of knowledge on how to market your home. Your agent will list your property on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), an online database to which they have exclusive access. Getting your home listed on the MLS will greatly increase its exposure to interested buyers. Your listing agent will coordinate showings and open houses, opening the door to conversations with buyers and their agents.

Your agent will also make recommendations and help coordinate all marketing efforts, like staging and photography. They’ll also be able to recommend what, if any, repairs need to be made before you go live. Their expertise will streamline the selling process, getting your house ready and on the market quickly.

Offers / Negotiations / Closing

The complexities of the critical stages in the selling process highlight the value of an agent’s expertise. A listing agent will work on your behalf to field and assess incoming offers, communicate with buyers and their agents during negotiations, and ultimately, see the deal through to closing.

Local market conditions can often dictate how your agent approaches offers and negotiations. In a seller’s market, there’s a good chance you will have multiple competing offers on the table, contingencies are often waived, and all-cash offers may arise. Trying to pin down the best offer in these competitive situations can be overwhelming, but listing agents specialize in understanding the terms of these kinds of offers to identify the one that best aligns with your goals. If you’re selling in a buyer’s market, the buyer will have the leverage. Your listing agent will work with the buyer’s agent to reach an agreement on the buyer’s contingencies and finalize the terms of purchase.

From list to closing, your listing agent is there to answer any questions you may have, allay your fears, and guide you toward a successful sale. When searching for an agent, keep in mind that their ability to connect with you on a human level is just as important as their professional qualities. Selling your home can be an emotional roller coaster, and you’ll want someone by your side who you can trust on the journey ahead. If you would like some help connecting with an agent, get started here:

 

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Do You Need a Realtor to Buy a Home?

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Buying a home is a major investment, and it comes with a lot of variables. From finding the right neighborhood to determining how much home your budget allows, it is a complicated task. Because of the difficulties involved, many prospective homebuyers decide to work with a full-service realtor. However, if you decide to go on this venture by yourself, here are the top things you’ll want to know before you buy a home without a realtor. 

 

Consider These 5 Things Before Buying a Home Without a Realtor:

Forbes shared 5 times to consider buying a home without a realtor:

1. You’re Related to the Seller

You might be able to avoid hiring a real estate agent if you’re selling a home within your family. In that case, as long as you’ve agreed on a price and other important transaction details, you’ll probably be able to handle it without the seller paying thousands of dollars in commission. Regardless, consult a lawyer to conduct a title search on the property and ensure that all paperwork is properly filled out, reviewed, and filed.

 

2. You Know the Area

When you’re buying a home in a neighborhood you know well, you might not think it’s necessary to hire a buyer’s agent. However, a real estate agent can provide more information than just market knowledge, such as assisting you in finding the right home and negotiating with the seller’s agent.

 

3. You Can Save Money

In rare circumstances, a buyer may be required to pay all or part of a buyer’s agent’s commission. Someone selling a home on their own, for example, might state in their listing that they will not negotiate fees with a buyer’s agent. In this case, instead of hiring an agent, you might decide it’s worthwhile to try to work directly with the seller.

 

4. You Get to Work Alone

Even though they are legally required to represent your interests, you may be wary of dealing with a buyer’s agent. If you believe an agent would rush you into a deal or match you with the wrong house, you might feel more at ease handling it yourself.

When dealing with the seller’s agent, you’ll want to make sure you’re not overmatched. Think of it like negotiating a divorce settlement with just the counsel and expertise of the other party’s lawyer—it might not go well for you.

 

5. You’re Buying a New Home

If you’re only interested in buying a newly constructed home, you might be able to work out a deal with the builder directly. According to the NAR survey, about 6% of buyers worked with a builder or builder’s agent to purchase a home in 2020.

 

real estate agent helping someone with paperwork

 

The Benefits of Working With a Realtor

The best tip for buying a home is not to do it alone. Realtors can assist you with every aspect of shopping for a home. From researching the market to representing you throughout sale negotiations, a realtor’s ultimate job is to provide you with peace of mind. When working with a realtor, they can help you find the home that meets your budget and your lifestyle. Additionally, real estate agents speed up the process of buying a home because their knowledge and experience help them be more efficient throughout the entire process. This means you will save both time and money and have the peace of mind in knowing all the details are being handled by a professional.

Are you interested in learning more benefits of working with a realtor? 

Connect with a Local Expert

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