Still Behind

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Single family new housing starts in 2022 will show an increase versus last year, will be the most since 2007, and will still be well behind the peak of 2006.

This year, experts predict that a total of 1.1 million single family homes will be started. In 2021 there were 970 thousand new home starts.

The peak occurred in 2006, when 1.65 new homes were started.

So, this year will finish 33% behind the peak.

When we are asked why today’s market is different from the ‘bubble years’ of 2004 to 2007, the difference in new home starts is one reason we cite.

Even though the market is cooling, we remain significantly undersupplied which insulates prices from any kind of dramatic downturn.

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Housing Inventory

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Many of our clients wonder if the current pace of price growth can continue.  Some even ask if prices will decline this year. 

Based on researching the Case-Shiller Home Price index and the National Association of Realtors home inventory data, there must be at least 6 months of inventory in a market for prices to have any chance of declining. We wrapped up 2021 with about 2 weeks of inventory across Larimer County, Weld County and Metro Denver. This marks a 43%-46% decrease in inventory as compared to December 2020.

The dwindling supply and the rising prices have led to a lot of questions about the future of the housing market. Is there a market crash on the horizon? Is there a housing bubble that’s about the burst? The answer is no. Although it is unlikely that the market can continue at this pace indefinitely, all signs point to a healthy housing market in 2022.

The post Housing Inventory appeared first on Windermere Colorado REALTORS.

In Perspective

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Let’s put today’s home prices in perspective.

Appreciation has been significant over the last 18 months. Some people are wondering if it can last and if there might be a housing bubble.

There are two ways to look at prices. One way is in absolute terms. This is simply looking at the dollar amount a home would sell for at some point in the past versus the dollar amount it would sell for.

The other way is in real terms. ‘Real’ is an economics term which means that inflation is factored into the valuation.

For example, a gallon of milk costs more today in absolute terms than it did 15 years ago. However, in real terms, the cost is about the same as 15 years ago because inflation is factored in. The price of milk has essentially escalated at the same rate as inflation.

So, how about home prices? As we know, prices in absolute terms are higher than 15 years ago. To be exact, prices are 43% higher Nationally compared to 2006 according to Case-Shiller.

However, in real terms, prices are the same as 2006.

Over the last 15 years, homes have appreciated at essentially the same rate as inflation.

The post In Perspective appeared first on Windermere Colorado REALTORS.

In Perspective

/in , , , , , , , , , , /by

Let’s put today’s home prices in perspective.

Appreciation has been significant over the last 18 months. Some people are wondering if it can last and if there might be a housing bubble.

There are two ways to look at prices. One way is in absolute terms. This is simply looking at the dollar amount a home would sell for at some point in the past versus the dollar amount it would sell for.

The other way is in real terms. ‘Real’ is an economics term which means that inflation is factored into the valuation.

For example, a gallon of milk costs more today in absolute terms than it did 15 years ago. However, in real terms, the cost is about the same as 15 years ago because inflation is factored in. The price of milk has essentially escalated at the same rate as inflation.

So, how about home prices? As we know, prices in absolute terms are higher than 15 years ago. To be exact, prices are 43% higher Nationally compared to 2006 according to Case-Shiller.

However, in real terms, prices are the same as 2006.

Over the last 15 years, homes have appreciated at essentially the same rate as inflation.

The post In Perspective appeared first on Windermere Colorado REALTORS.