This week, take a listen to Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist as he discusses the current state of the housing market.
He takes a deep dive into interest rates, price appreciation and where the market is headed.
You can watch his video HERE
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The recent increase in mortgage rates has started some home buyers to look at programs that have fixed rates for 7 years or 10 years instead of 30 years.
If a buyer believes it is likely they will move or even refinance within this timeframe, these types of programs can be a good option.
The obvious benefit is a lower monthly payment compared to a 30-year program.
Another benefit, which most people underestimate, is the savings in interest.
Today, for example, a buyer would have these options:
Over the first five years of the loan, the buyer would pay the following amounts in interest for each loan program for a $400,000 loan:
So the savings in interest over the first five years compared to the 30-year program is:
The post Interest-ing appeared first on Windermere Colorado REALTORS.
The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.
Although the post COVID-19 job recovery took a step backward last winter, it has since picked up again, which is very pleasing to see. At the end of the second quarter, the state had recovered more than 276,000 of the 376,000+ jobs that were shed due to COVID-19. Even though employment levels are still almost 100,000 lower than the pre-pandemic peak, they are heading in the right direction. Looking at the markets contained in this report, current employment levels in Colorado Springs are only 2.2% below the pre-pandemic peak, followed by Denver and Fort Collins, which are both down 3.6% from the 2020 peak. I would add that all markets showed jobs continuing to return. With total employment levels rising, the unemployment rate stands at 6.2%, down from the pandemic peak of 12.1%. Regionally, unemployment levels range from a low of 4.8% in Boulder to a high of 6.3% in Grand Junction. COVID-19 infection rates dropped during the quarter, which is certain to lead to employment levels continuing to rise unless we see another significant increase in infection rates due to the rise of new variants across the country.
❱ The late spring/early summer market was a good one for home sales, which were up 33.9% from a year ago. Comparing the current quarter to a period when COVID-19 was widespread is not that informative, but, with sales up more than 55% from the first quarter of this year, the market appears to be very buoyant.
❱ Sales were higher in all counties other than the very small Clear Creek County. Where sales rose, they did so at double-digit rates in all markets other than Weld.
❱ During the second quarter, 13,428 homes sold. This is very impressive but not overly surprising, given that the average number of homes for sale was up 45% from the first quarter.
❱ Another positive was that pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, were 42.8% higher than in the first quarter. This suggests that closings next quarter should be positive as well.
❱ Prices continue to appreciate at an impressive pace, recording an increase of 28.1% year over year to an average of $615,409. Home prices were also 10.7% higher than the first quarter of this year.
❱ Buyer demand remains very strong, likely exacerbated by the drop in mortgage rates in the second quarter and improving levels of inventory.
❱ Year-over-year, prices rose across all markets covered by this report, with the exception of Clear Creek County. Of the markets that saw prices rise, all did so by double digits, with very notable gains in Boulder, Gilpin, and Park counties.
❱ Affordability levels continue to trouble me, and the pace of price appreciation has to slow at some point. The market is clearly still out of balance, but as long as the credit quality of buyers remains high, I do not see any cause for concern.
❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped 14 days compared to the second quarter of 2020.
❱ The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in every county contained in this report compared to the second quarter of 2020. The exception was Gilpin County, where it rose by only two days.
❱ It took an average of only 14 days to sell a home in the region, which is down 11 days compared to the first quarter of this year.
❱ The Colorado housing market remains very tight, as demonstrated by the fact that it took less than a month for homes to sell in every county other than one.
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
Sales rose on the back of lower mortgage rates and higher levels of homes available to buy. Although this should signify a move back to a more balanced market, we are not there yet as price growth remains well above the long-term average.
With solid demand and favorable financing rates, the market is expected to remain active as we move through the balance of the year. That said, housing affordability is becoming an increasingly large concern. According to the Colorado Association of REALTORS®, statewide affordability for single-family homes has dropped almost 20% year-over-year and is down 17.8% for multi-family homes.
At some point, an affordability ceiling will be reached, which will slow home-price appreciation—but not yet. As such, I am moving the needle a little more in favor of home sellers, as they remain in the driver’s seat, for now.
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
The post Q2 2021 Colorado Real Estate Market Update appeared first on Windermere Colorado REALTORS.
“All markets are local” is a commonly used phrase in real estate.
This adage is proving to be true as we notice slight changes recently in the market.
Bottom line, the market, in some locations, is not behaving exactly like it did even 30 days ago. Properties that perhaps would have received 10 or more offers last month, are now receiving only one.
It is as important as ever to examine not only the general market area, but also hyper-local markets in order to understand the nuances that exist in specific locations.
A common activity we perform with our clients is to research the months of supply in their own neighborhood. We will frequently find that this stat varies considerably from the market as a whole.
To illustrate how ‘all markets are local,’ take a look at the days of inventory statistic for the following markets:
Larimer County = 18 days
Fort Collins = 15 days
80521 Zip Code = 24 days
80525 Zip Code = 9 days
While data on the overall market clarifies overall trends, it is the hyper-local research that is incredibly valuable when pricing property.
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The economic research blog called “Calculated Risk” just completed a fascinating study on home prices.
Specifically, they looked at the correlation between home price growth and inventory.
They used price data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and inventory data from the National Association of Realtors.
No surprise, they found that the lower the inventory the higher the home price growth. Also no surprise, as inventory goes up, price growth slows down.
This all correlates with simple economic rules of supply and demand.
The interesting part of their research is this: at a certain level of inventory, prices have the potential to go down.
That level, according to their research, is six months of inventory.
That means, prices don’t have a chance of decreasing in a market until there is at least 6 months of inventory available for sale.
To put that in perspective, today there is two weeks of inventory on the market along the Front Range.
So, there would need to be 12 times the amount of homes for sale on the market for prices to even have a chance to go down.
The post Calculated Risk appeared first on Windermere Colorado REALTORS.
The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
What a difference a quarter makes! Following the massive job losses Colorado experienced starting in February—the state shed over 342,000 positions between February and April—the turnaround has been palpable. Through August, Colorado has recovered 178,000 of the jobs lost due to COVID-19, adding 107,500 jobs over the past three months, an increase of 4.2%. All regions saw a significant number of jobs returning. The most prominent was in the Denver metropolitan service area (MSA), where 78,800 jobs returned in the quarter.
Although employment in all markets is recovering, there is still a way to go to get back to pre-pandemic employment levels. The recovery in jobs has naturally led the unemployment rate to drop: the state is now at a respectable 6.7%, down from a peak of 12.2%. Regionally, all areas continue to see their unemployment rates contract. I would note that the Fort Collins and Boulder MSA unemployment rates are now below 6%. Cases of COVID-19 continue to rise, which is troubling, but rising rates have only slowed—not stopped—the economic recovery. Moreover, it has had no noticeable impact on the state’s housing market.
HOME SALES
HOME PRICES
-year to an average of $523,193. Prices were up 7.4% compared to the second quarter of this year.
DAYS ON MARKET
CONCLUSIONS
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
Demand for housing is significant, and sales activity is only limited by the lack of available homes to buy. Prices are rising on the back of very competitive mortgage rates and a job market in recovery. I suggested in my second-quarter report that the area would experience a “brisk summer housing market” and my forecast was accurate. As such, I have moved the needle a little more in favor of home sellers.
ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
The post Colorado Real Estate Market Update appeared first on Windermere Colorado REALTORS.
On this week’s episode of “Mondays with Matthew”, Matthew Gardner discusses what is needed to motivate more Millennials to buy and the important role they play in the long-term health of the US housing market.
The post Matthew Gardner Weekly COVID-19 Housing & Economic Update: 7/6/2020 appeared first on Windermere Colorado REALTORS.
On this week’s episode of “Mondays with Matthew,” Matthew Gardner discusses housing affordability and how he believes that despite the impact of COVID-19, affordability issues will remain and may actually get worse as we move forward.
The post Matthew Gardner Weekly COVID-19 Housing & Economic Update: 6/29/2020 appeared first on Windermere Colorado REALTORS.
In this week’s episode of “Mondays with Matthew,” Windermere Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, dives into the high-frequency data sets that he uses to help determine where the US economy is at with emerging from the impacts of COVID-19. Hint: there’s progress, but we aren’t out of the woods yet.
The post Matthew Gardner Weekly COVID-19 Housing & Economic Update: 6/22/2020 appeared first on Windermere Colorado REALTORS.
In this week’s episode of Mondays with Matthew, Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner kicks off a series of episodes in which he answers questions from his followers. The first deals with how COVID-19 will impact buyer behaviors, especially in more urban markets.
The post Matthew Gardner Weekly COVID-19 Housing & Economic Update: 5/18/2020 appeared first on Windermere Colorado REALTORS.
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