Still Behind

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Single family new housing starts in 2022 will show an increase versus last year, will be the most since 2007, and will still be well behind the peak of 2006.

This year, experts predict that a total of 1.1 million single family homes will be started. In 2021 there were 970 thousand new home starts.

The peak occurred in 2006, when 1.65 new homes were started.

So, this year will finish 33% behind the peak.

When we are asked why today’s market is different from the ‘bubble years’ of 2004 to 2007, the difference in new home starts is one reason we cite.

Even though the market is cooling, we remain significantly undersupplied which insulates prices from any kind of dramatic downturn.

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Lumber Back Up

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The price of lumber has jumped back up again and is adding to the cost of new home construction.

Over the past four months, lumber prices have nearly tripled, causing the price of an average new single-family home to increase by more than $18,600.

According to Random Lengths, as of the end of December, the price of framing lumber topped $1,000 per thousand board feet — a 167% increase since late August.

This most recent lumber price upsurge is due to a number of factors, including:

  • Ongoing supply chain disruptions
  • A doubling of tariffs on Canadian lumber imports into the U.S. market that increased price volatility
  • An unusually strong summer wildfire season in the western United States and British Columbia

Predictions on what lumber prices will do during 2022 are mostly pointing to even higher costs for home builders and ultimately, new home buyers.

The post Lumber Back Up appeared first on Windermere Colorado REALTORS.