Calculated Risk

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The economic research blog called “Calculated Risk” just completed a fascinating study on home prices.

Specifically, they looked at the correlation between home price growth and inventory.

They used price data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and inventory data from the National Association of Realtors.

No surprise, they found that the lower the inventory the higher the home price growth. Also no surprise, as inventory goes up, price growth slows down.

This all correlates with simple economic rules of supply and demand.

The interesting part of their research is this: at a certain level of inventory, prices have the potential to go down.

That level, according to their research, is six months of inventory.

That means, prices don’t have a chance of decreasing in a market until there is at least 6 months of inventory available for sale.

To put that in perspective, today there is two weeks of inventory on the market along the Front Range.

So, there would need to be 12 times the amount of homes for sale on the market for prices to even have a chance to go down.

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What is a Seller’s Market?

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When the housing market favors sellers, a seller can expect ideal conditions for selling their home. However, that’s not to say that a seller’s market doesn’t come with its own unique set of challenges for parties on both sides of the transaction. That’s why it’s critical for buyers and sellers to work with an agent who not only understands their wants and needs but who can also help them navigate highly competitive market conditions.

What is a Seller’s Market?

A seller’s market occurs when demand exceeds supply. When inventory is limited, competition amongst buyers is fierce. Median sales prices increase, days on market decrease, and homes commonly receive multiple offers, often over their original asking price.

Selling in a Seller’s Market

Though demand is high in a seller’s market, staging and making any necessary repairs are still important steps to take before hitting the market. An agent can help a seller make important decisions about which repairs and updates help add value to the home.

When it comes to offers and negotiations in a seller’s market, sellers have the leverage. It’s common for homes to fetch more than their asking price with multiple offers on the table. Though prices are being driven up by demand, a seller may choose to list their home at or just below fair market value with the hopes of starting a bidding war. Because competition is so high, buyers may be willing to waive an inspection contingency to help make their offer stand out. Agents can help sellers decide whether they should conduct a pre-listing inspection, which sometimes helps the seller get more offers and command a higher price.

With multiple offers on the table, it may be tempting to simply choose the one with the highest figure; however, the best offer is also the one that removes risk and aligns with the seller’s goals. Whether that entails waived contingencies, a shorter closing window, or an all-cash offer, in a seller’s market, the seller has the power to choose. Sellers should fully review each offer with the help of their agent before proceeding.

Buying in a Seller’s Market

Buyers in a seller’s market must act fast. Due to the high level of competition, they must be prepared for a frustrating scenario where their offers may not win out. This emphasizes the importance of working with a buyer’s agent. In a seller’s market, it’s more likely that the buying process will include such factors as seller review dates and escalation clauses. A buyer’s agent will help navigate these challenges while working with their client to make their offer stand out. They will formulate a strategy, comparing their client’s wish list and budget against the limited number of homes available and proceeding accordingly. A buyer’s agent will also set the expectation that, due to the competitive nature of the market, finding the right home may take longer than expected.

In a seller’s market, the buyer is at a disadvantage when it comes to negotiations. The chance of getting a contingent offer is minimal and pushing for certain closing dates and specific repairs may do more harm than good to their offer. A cash offer has significant power in a seller’s market. If a buyer can make a cash-heavy or even all-cash offer, it is likely to stand out to the seller. It gives the buyer more buying power and greatly increases their chances of winning a bidding war.

For more information on the conditions of your local market, visit our website for Quarterly Real Estate Market Updates from our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner. For assistance planning a home sale or purchase, connect with a Windermere Real Estate agent here: Connect With an Agent

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Tax Confusion

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Did you know the value of your property according to the County Assessor is not the value of your property today?

Property owners up and down the Front Range recently received a postcard from their local County Assessor’s office with their new valuation.

Colorado properties are reappraised every two years on odd years.  The updated valuations determine how much property tax is paid.

Each County has their own unique processes and models for valuation, however…

All Counties must only consider comparable properties that sold between July 1, 2018 and June 30, 2020.

The value on your postcard is what your County thinks your property was worth almost a year ago.

As you are likely aware, the market today is significantly different than it was 11 months ago.  It’s actually quite different than it was 11 weeks ago!

The postcards with the new valuations tend to prompt very reasonable questions like:

  • What do I do if I don’t agree with the Assessor?
  • What is my property really worth?

We are happy to help you with either of these questions.

Our team is well-versed in the tax protest process, can help you research comparable properties and can also show you what your home is worth today. Just reach out to us if we can help you. The deadline to protest your value is June 1st.

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Want a house in Fort Collins? Grab $500,000, get in line and join the housing Hunger Games

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“Buying a house in Fort Collins these days can feel like a combat sport. Maybe more like the

‘Hunger Games.’ Or Charlie Brown and the football — every time you get close to the ball,

Lucy whisks it away…”

 

Pat Ferrier at the Fort Collins Coloradoan breaks down the housing market in Northern Colorado with the help real estate professionals across the front range. Click the link below to read on!

 

Fort Collins real estate_ Average home price near $500K in market

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5.5 Million Short

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New home construction is behind by 5.5 million homes over the last 14 years.

Since 2007, new home starts have lagged significantly behind the long-term average.

The Census Bureau started tracking National new home starts in 1958.

Between 1958 and 2007, an average of 1,102,938 new homes were started each year.

Between 2007 and 2020 the average fell to 708,186 which represents a shortfall of 394,752 per year.

That adds up to a total shortfall of 5,526,525.

The under-supply of new homes is of course a significant reason why the market is under-supplied overall.

credit Inman News as the source of this story

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Renovating Your Short-Term Rental

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Renovating your short-term rental property will not only keep it in peak condition but will also help it stand out to potential renters. Completing remodeling projects with the goal of increasing the return on your investment is a matter of identifying which renovations make sense for the home, putting together a plan, and taking steps to minimize the risk of the projects going over budget.

 

Start with Repairs

Because rental properties are by nature a source of income, it’s worth your while as the homeowner to reduce maintenance costs wherever possible. This can often mean spending money in the short term on repairs and replacements in order to save money down the road. Furthermore, by upgrading your appliances, fixing leaks, and updating any outdated features, you will provide the most accommodating environment for your renters. Making these improvements can also help set your rental apart from other properties, giving you a competitive advantage in the market. As you go about making repairs, don’t forget to check the working condition of all faucets, electrical outlets, and lights.

 

Renovating Your Rental

Understanding the scope of your renovations and the motivation behind them before you get started will help formulate your plan moving forward. Are you looking to upgrade the home to sell it in the future? Are you renovating to increase rent? Or are you simply looking to be more competitive in the local rental market? Knowing the answers to these questions won’t necessarily change your renovation plans, but it will provide guidance as you enter the remodeling phase. Consider talking to your Windermere agent about how different projects may affect the value of the property.

Even a small-scale renovation can make a big difference in the minds of renters. To create the best first impression from the get-go, consider boosting your home’s curb appeal. Projects like exterior painting, refinishing a deck, and power washing your siding and walkways will help provide an inviting outdoor setting for your renters.

When it comes to interior renovations, kitchens are a great place to start. Thankfully, kitchen makeovers can be simple. Identify the areas of your kitchen that need repair first, then expand your project list from there. Next, consider upgrading the bathroom. Begin by checking your pipes, drains, and p-traps for any signs of wear and tear. Simple things like painting the vanity and updating the bathroom hardware can also make a big impact.

Last but not least, if you decide to hire a professional to renovate your rental property, be sure to gather multiple bids and compare prices before making your final decision.

Learn more about the pros and cons of investing in vacation rentals here: Vacation Home or Income-Producing Investment. You can also read about vacation home renovations by season here: Renovating Your Vacation Home.

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