Tracking Change

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The market is changing. The change is slight, not drastic.

Both potential sellers and potential buyers need to know that the pace of the market has slowed since the Spring.

Here is one way we track this change…

A review of the August numbers shows the pace of sales in each of our Front Range markets:

  •  Larimer County = 18 closings per day
  • Weld County = 16 closings per day
  • Metro Denver = 165 closings per day

Based on the pace of sales, we can determine the inventory of current homes for sale measured in days:

  • Larimer County = 24 days of inventory
  • Weld County = 23 days of inventory
  • Metro Denver = 18 days of inventory

Then we can measure the increase in days of inventory versus April of this year:

  • Larimer County = 26% increase
  • Weld County = 15% increase
  • Metro Denver = 20% increase

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Population Math

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The brand new Census data has just been released and it is fascinating!

Colorado’s population now sits just below 6 million people at 5.773 million.  Just 20 years ago it was 4.301 million.

Northern Colorado is booming and now has 688,047 in Larimer and Weld Counties.  It grew by 135,592 people in just ten years.  If Northern Colorado grows at just 2% per year, it will have 838,725 people by 2030 and 1,022,402 by 2040.  

For several years we have been predicting that Northern Colorado would exceed by 1 million people by 2040 and it looks like that will come true.

Metro Denver is also booming.  For reference, we define ‘Metro Denver’ as Adams, Arapahoe, Denver, Douglas, and Jefferson Counties.

Population in Metro Denver is now 2.831 million and was 2.109 million in the year 2000.  It has grown by 722,000 people in 20 years.

If Metro Denver grows at 2% per year, it will hit 3.451 million in 10 years and 4.206 million in 20 years.

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100 / 90 / 60

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As you’ve probably heard, prices have gone up quite a bit along the Front Range.

Low interest rates, strong demand, lower supply, and a healthy local economy are all contributing to increased prices.

It may interest you to see exactly how much prices have increased since one year ago in the markets where we have the most activity.

Over the last year, Weld County has increased roughly $100,000, Metro Denver $90,000 and Larimer County $60,000.

Specifically, here are the average prices one year ago vs. today:

  • Weld County = $426,000 vs. $523,000
  • Metro Denver = $523,000 vs. $612,000
  • Larimer County = $532,000 vs. $592,000

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Listing Averages

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While a lot of attention has been paid to increasing sales prices along the Front Range, it is also interesting to look at the average price of properties currently listed for sale.

Did you know, for instance, that the average list price of all the properties currently for sale in Metro Denver is $887,000. Meanwhile, the average closed sales price is $613,000.

In Larimer County it is $793,000 versus an average closed sales price of $601,000.

In Weld County it is $669,000 versus $488,000.

What is causing this? The high number of high-end properties currently for sale pulling up the average.

You might be surprised to hear the number of $1,000,000-plus listings active listings in our market looks like this:

  • Metro Denver = 527
  • Larimer County = 75
  • Weld County = 44

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2 to 3

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Along the Front Range we have gone from two weeks of inventory to three weeks.

For much of the Spring, there was only two weeks of inventory on the market in most areas. Meaning, it would only take 14 days to sell all of the homes currently for sale.

Now, because the pace of sales has slightly slowed down and there is a bit more inventory, there is roughly three weeks.

We can actually measure inventory in number of days based on the pace of sales in July so far:

  • Metro Denver = 23 Days
  • Larimer County = 22 Days
  • Weld County = 22 Days

This is obviously good news for buyers as they have better selection and slightly less competition.

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Fourth of July in Northern Colorado

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Fourth of July weekend is here are we can’t wait for the festivities to begin! If you’re working on finalizing your plans for the weekend, take a look at a few of the events that are taking place in our own backyard. Whether you spend your time out and about or relaxing at home, we wish you a Happy Independence Day!

Greeley Stampede

The 99th annual Greeley Stampede will be running through this holiday weekend! This non-profit hosts multiple events including a PRCA rodeo series, American bull fighting, demolition derby, concerts, art galleries, and more! Located at Island Grove Regional Park, this event includes carnival activities, food vendors, small businesses and activities for the kids!

 

Hot Air Balloon Release

Early birds, this one is for you! Fort Collins will be hosting a hot air balloon release at Twin Silo, Soft Gold and Edora Parks (weather permitting). Launch will begin at 6:00am and the balloons will remain afloat for several hours.

 

Fourth of July 5K

Calling all runners! Both Fort Collins and Loveland have organized 5K races to help us celebrate this Fourth of July. Fort Collins is hosting it’s 22nd annual “FireKracker 5K” at Sheldon Lake in City Park, scheduled to begin at 7:25a. Loveland’s 5K will take place at Loveland Fairgrounds Park. Happy racing!

 

Old-Fashioned Fourth of July

Music, fun, and games, OH MY! This year, in lieu of a parade, the City of Fort Collins is teaming up with the Avery House to host an “Old-Fashioned Fourth of July” party from 10:00a to 2:00p on July 4th. Don your red, white and blue and head downtown to kick off your holiday weekend! Admission is free and all ages are welcome.

 

Wellington Parade and Festival

Photo by Brian Graves

Wellington has organized a full day of holiday events to celebrate Independence Day! Join in the fun from 10:00a to 11:00a for a parade which will begin on Cleveland Avenue (between 1st Street and 5th Street). Can’t make it out? No worries! A festival from 11:00a-6:00p will be hosted at Wellington Community Park leading up to fireworks scheduled to begin at 9:40p.

 

Fireworks

Photo by Kimmie Randall

Larimer County and the cities of Fort Collins and Loveland are teaming up to put on our annual fireworks show this year. Plus, information on festivities in Windsor, Timnath, and Wellington are included. Click here to check out what time fireworks will kick off as well as the activities offered at each location!

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Inventory Uptick

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We are noticing a trend that is very good news for buyers.

Inventory has been increasing over the last month which means that buyers now have more properties to consider.

Just in the last week, the number of homes for sale has increased:

13% in Larimer County

12% in Weld County

11% in Metro Denver

If you are a buyer who has been waiting for home properties to look at, now is the time!

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Local Nuances

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“All markets are local” is a commonly used phrase in real estate.

This adage is proving to be true as we notice slight changes recently in the market.

Bottom line, the market, in some locations, is not behaving exactly like it did even 30 days ago. Properties that perhaps would have received 10 or more offers last month, are now receiving only one.

It is as important as ever to examine not only the general market area, but also hyper-local markets in order to understand the nuances that exist in specific locations.

A common activity we perform with our clients is to research the months of supply in their own neighborhood. We will frequently find that this stat varies considerably from the market as a whole.

To illustrate how ‘all markets are local,’ take a look at the days of inventory statistic for the following markets:

Larimer County = 18 days
Fort Collins = 15 days
80521 Zip Code = 24 days
80525 Zip Code = 9 days

While data on the overall market clarifies overall trends, it is the hyper-local research that is incredibly valuable when pricing property.

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High Average

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If you watch the weekly statistics that we produce and post on social media, a number that might be jumping off the screen at you is the average price.

Specifically, it is the percentage increase in average price versus last year that is striking.

We are commonly asked ‘how could average prices increase 20% to 30% in one year?’

It is important to note prices haven’t appreciated up to 30%, it’s only the average price that has increased by that amount.

A key reason why average prices have increased by such a significant amount is that there are many more luxury properties selling this year versus last year.

Sales of properties priced over $1,000,000 have seen a substantial increase compared to 2020.

Look at these numbers which show the year over year increase in closed transactions for real estate priced over $1 million:

  • Larimer County = 159%
  • Weld County = 247%
  • Metro Denver = 137%

So, transactions of luxury properties have much more than doubled compared to 2020 which is pulling up the average sales price in a significant way.

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